Leonard Mlodinow in his book “ The Drunkard’s Walk” comments on how randomness rules our lives.
He reminds us of our statistics classes, Pascal triangle, probability laws, randomness, series, sequences, limit. Shows us how we can make mistakes, misled by our intuition, that ignores the influence of random events (the "Ask Marilyn" example is remarkable) and presents a historic context on some people that have made a relevant contribution to such field.
And concludes with his view that, in the end, chance is more fundamental than causality: some of us will be successful and others unsuccessful – things are not really about competence and realization.
It is about this specific subject, in what it relates to entrepreneurship, that I want to comment.
Although I agree that we can all be placed statistically within a “normal curve” distributing different degrees of success, and that factors beyond our control have a relevant impact on the final outcome, our individual position in the curve is not random.
There is a difference between random and “of unknown trend or cause”, or even "uncontrollable" - and Mlodinow seems to often use these different concepts interchangeably. The consequences may be similar in some aspects, but it is incorrect to classify as random events that are very difficult to foresee or control.
Actually it is questionable if pure randomness can be achieved, as even the mentioned movement of a "dye in a glass of water" will have causes and trends that may be unkown, but not necessarily random.
I read in such determinism - "Randomness Rules!" - an implicit connotation of resignation, like "there is nothing you can do, just give up"! It is like randomness is a “god”, the omnipotent cause of what we can not explain.
It is true that when we look at the whole population (say of entrepreneurs or fund managers) the chances are high that some will be positive outliers, that others will fail and the average will not beat the “market”. However, implying as a general truth that randomness is the main reason for outperformance (he mentions Bill Gates as an example) just underestimates the value of people who plan their actions, prepare for contingencies or know how to react to unforeseen events.
Of course, such events will take place and will have an impact. Good or bad luck are relevant. But individual decisions, actions or omissions will also significantly affect the outcome.
Entrepreneuring - actually life - is a lot about dealing with the imponderable, unforeseen and uncontrollable. Being lucky helps. But, do not underestimate the importance of doing your share of effective work. Be competent, proactive, anticipate, be flexible, adapt and, most important, persevere.
“Chances” that you will place yourself among the outperformers are just higher.
